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4 Keys to the G20 Summit 

Neil Dwane 

 

Neil Dwane

3/16/2017 

With America's leadership waning, Neil Dwane says the G20's role as an institution for global co-operation is more vital than ever. Participants at this week’s meeting plan to address tough issues like protectionism, currency manipulation and regulation.

Who's leading the world now?

As Germany prepares to host this week's G20 meetings in Baden-Baden, one question will hang over this spa town like a cloud: "Have we left the world order that lasted 70 years under Pax Americana?" As the group looks for answers, its discussions and eventual pronouncements on four topics will be significant.

1
Protectionism
The forces that helped US President Donald Trump rise to power have not been placated by his election. The changes expected to be made to US trade policy are being echoed around the world by anti-globalization politicians and voters. Indeed, it speaks volumes that China's president, Xi Jinping, is expected to be the meeting's most vocal supporter for global free trade. Unlike at previous G20 summits, we don't expect to see any unashamed celebration of free trade at this year's meeting. Instead, participants will unite under the banner of "fair globalization" in a bid to signal that a new form of collaboration is possible.
2
Trade imbalances
Because of its high trade surplus, Germany is facing reproach from G20 members running trade deficits – which not only includes members in Europe, but the United States as well. It is therefore quite conceivable that Germany will issue cautious signals about increasing government spending in areas such as defense that could lower the trade imbalance.
3
Currency manipulation
While connected to trade surpluses, no large country meets all of the US government's formal criteria for currency manipulation. What's more, Germany is a euro-zone member and therefore somewhat shielded from these accusations. As such, these discussions may be heated, but they are not likely to produce any concrete sanctions. China, however, will remain under careful scrutiny.
4
Financial-market regulation
Establishing a global framework for the smooth functioning of financial markets is crucial for creating a level playing field for the international banking sector. Yet if there is no agreement among G20 members, Europe's banks will suffer more than their US counterparts. This seems particularly relevant given the United States' current flirtations with deregulation, including a possible repeal of the Dodd-Frank Act.

The G20's role in a fractious world

In conclusion, the meeting will reflect a world of increasing geopolitical confrontation. And while concrete actions will be few and far between, the willingness of participants to break with consensus will be significant. Nevertheless, in an increasingly fractious world, the G20 will be more important than ever in its function as a center for co-operation.

The material contains the current opinions of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. Forecasts and estimates have certain inherent limitations, and are not intended to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.



Allianz Global Investors Distributors LLC, 1633 Broadway, New York, NY 10019-7585, us.allianzgi.com, 1-800-926-4456.

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