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India, Indonesia Bonds Showing Strong Potential 

David Tan 

 

7/18/2014 

Despite last year’s currency rout in India and Indonesia, proactive government actions are turning things around, says David Tan. Factor in solid ratings and high yields, and their sovereign bonds and currencies could be an attractive play.
India and Indonesia are often seen as the weakest links of the major Asian countries in terms of fundamentals. Both countries experienced deteriorating current account and fiscal balances last year, which was exacerbated by the impact of QE¹ tapering.

As a result, the Indian rupee lost 11 per cent against the US dollar in 2013 while the Indonesian rupiah declined by 19.5 per cent. Both currencies have yet to recover from these losses, and both remain down by more than 8 per cent during the past 12 months. The Indonesian local bond market also suffered from significant capital outflows last year — down 13 per cent in IDR² terms — given large foreign holdings of local sovereign bonds.

Given improvements in valuations and some potential turnaround signs ahead, we are turning more positive on the sovereign bonds and currencies of both India and Indonesia. This is due to proactive measures taken by both the Indian and Indonesian authorities that have supported recent improvements in their current account balances. In India’s recent national election, the favoured Bharatiya Janata Party won 282 out of 543 seats, achieving the first single-party majority in 30 years. This bodes well for the ability of the Indian government to put through the necessary reforms that are supportive of growth.

While GDP³ growth has weakened from the heady 6-plus per cent levels in 2011, it remains positive in the range of 4.5 to 5.5 per cent. India and Indonesia have investment-grade sovereign ratings by Moody’s and Fitch, and attractive two-year yields of 8.6 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively. While the high yields are partly a consequence of high inflation, we are comfortable with the recent measures of the central banks in managing inflation.

So with the year-to-date rally in government bond yields in PIGS4 economies — which still suffer from structurally weak growth prospects, high unemployment and still-large government deficits — we believe India and Indonesia sovereign bonds are an interesting alternative opportunity that offers attractive carry and currency appreciation potential.

Comparing Forex and Sovereign Debt
of India and Indonesia vs. PIGS

Country Sovereign Long-Term Foreign Currency Rating
(30 Apr 2014)
10-Year Bond Yield
(30 Apr 2014)
YTD Change in 10-Year Yields
(bps; 30 Apr 2014)
2-Year Bond Yield
(30 April 2014)
Real GDP
(YOY; 31 Dec 2013)
Current Account Balance
(% of GDP; 31 Dec 2013)
India Baa3/BBB-/BBB- 8.83% +1 8.58% 4.7% -2.8%
Indonesia Baa3/BB+/BBB- 7.98% -47 7.34% 5.7% -3.3%
Portugal Ba3/BB/BB+ 3.65% -248 1.13% 1.7% 0.5%
Italy Baa2/BBB/BBB+ 3.07% -106 1.26% -1.9% 0.0%
Greece Caa3/B-/B- 6.16% -226 n/a -2.3% 0.7%
Spain Baa2/BBB-/BBB+ 3.01% -114 0.74% -0.2% 2.8%
Source: Bloomberg, Allianz Global Investors. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.






1 Quantitative easing
2 Indian depository receipt
3 Gross domestic product
4 Portugal, Italy, Greece and Spain

The material contains the current opinions of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. Forecasts and estimates have certain inherent limitations, and are not intended to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

 

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