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President Trump's 100-Day Scorecard 

Neil Dwane 

 

Neil Dwane

4/28/2017 

When he took office, President Trump clearly outlined his policy priorities for the first 100 days. Now that this milestone has been reached, Neil Dwane takes a look at the progress the new president has made.

Key Takeaways

  • 100 days in, expectations have collided with political reality. While Mr. Trump's vision is still in place, his progress is likely to be slow.
  • This includes key market-friendly aspects of Trumponomics such as tax reform and infrastructure spending, where Congressional support will be vital.

Political reality sets in

Markets are buoyed by the prospect of tax cuts and other business-friendly measures from the new president
President Donald Trump came into office amid high expectations that were set by his own forceful campaign pledges. The financial markets expressed their high hopes in the form of higher share prices, buoyed by the prospect of tax cuts and other business-friendly measures from the new president.

Soon enough, however, Mr. Trump began facing significant challenges, starting with a combative Congress that couldn't muster the votes for his proposed repeal of Obamacare. With its defeat, Mr Trump had discovered what many leaders before him had already learned: Progress can be slow when political reality sets in.

Milestone of presidential progress

Mr. Trump is now at the 100-day mark of his presidency, and while it is unrealistic to expect him to have succeeded in every dimension of his program in just over three months, this has long been a milestone for assessing a new president's progress.

Mr. Trump's challenges included a combative Congress that couldn’t muster votes for his proposed repeal of Obamacare
With that in mind, our scorecard below provides our best assessment of Mr. Trump's accomplishments in the key policy areas he has spelled out in his ambitious agenda. Mr. Trump came into office with a bold vision and scored at least one quick win, but many of his proposed policies have made only incremental progress since then. Congressional support seems to hold the key to success for many of Mr. Trump's initiatives; without it, his ability to advance his agenda may be limited.

President Trump's 100-Day Scorecard

   
  1. No
    Progress
  2. In
    Progress
  3. Complete
Commentary
Make America Great Again Build a Wall
Executive action signed; supplementary border barriers are likely
Restrict Immigration
Policy affected by US judiciary
Increase Infrastructure
Congress unlikely to commit to major spending program
Increase Defense
Proposition to swell defense budget by $52 billion
"Drain the Swamp" and Reduce Political Influencers
Congress and Republicans gridlocked
Trade Withdraw from TPP
Executive action signed
Renegotiate NAFTA
Mr. Trump recently softened his position on NAFTA, agreeing to negotiate instead of terminate
China "Fair Trade"
Awaiting assessment report from the US Department of Commerce
BAT or other Tax-Increase idea
Congress cooling on BAT
Trumponomics Reduce Personal tax
New proposal cuts tax rates but also limits some popular deductions
Reduce Corporate tax
Big cuts in business-income tax should boost corporate earnings
Repatriate cash
Unlikely to stimulate the economy
Deregulation Dodd-Frank Simplification
Expectations of deregulation too high
Return of Glass-Steagall?
Reinstatement called for by both Democratic and Republican parties
FDA Improvements
Scott Gottlieb picked for commissioner
Obamacare Improvements
Prioritizing Obamacare now a policy mistake
Financials Change Composition of FOMC
To come in 2018
Deliver New 2017 – 2018 Budget
Preliminary budget delivered, covering only discretionary spending
Unfunded “Tax Cuts”?
Unlikely from a conservative Congress

Investment implications

  • The markets' expectations for "Trumpflation" should be lower.
  • Mr. Trump's 3-4% sustainable growth pledge may be tough to attain; much depends on labor force growth and productivity growth.
  • If Mr. Trump successfully reduces regulations, financial services could benefit; less so the energy sector.
  • Overall, progress will be slower and take longer than many anticipate.
The material contains the current opinions of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. Forecasts and estimates have certain inherent limitations, and are not intended to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.



Allianz Global Investors Distributors LLC, 1633 Broadway, New York, NY 10019-7585, us.allianzgi.com, 1-800-926-4456.

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