Italian Comedian Sparks American Fears 

Kristina Hooper 

The Upshot 

3/4/2013 

While investors panicked on parallels between Italy and Greece, shrugged at the “sequester” and applauded the prospect of more easy Fed money, last week’s surging VIX suggests there may be more volatility to come, writes Kristina Hooper.
Twitter

Sharing ideas.
Sparking conversation.

Follow AllianzGI_US on Twitter

Join the Conversation!

Kristina Hooper, CFP®, CIMA®, is US head of investment and client strategies for Allianz Global Investors. She has a B.A. from Wellesley College, a J.D. from Pace Law and an M.B.A. in finance from NYU, where she was a teaching fellow in macroeconomics.

The market’s reaction to world events can be hard to predict, but market volatility is hard to ignore.

US investors went on an emotional roller-coaster ride last week: A comedian’s strong showing in Italy’s inconclusive elections caused angst in America; the sequester and worse-than-expected gross domestic product (GDP) news barely registered; and Fed Chairman Bernanke’s latest comments soothed.

But the key takeaway was the jump in volatility as stocks fell early in the week. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)—widely known as the “fear index”—rose 34% to 19.18 on Feb. 25, its largest one-day percentage increase since August 2011.

Yet it wasn’t concern about the lack of a deal on the “sequester” that sent fear higher and stocks lower—or even worries about revised fourth-quarter GDP numbers, which came in below expectations. Instead, what troubled the markets was the uncertainty created by the elections in Italy.

Fear a Factor


Surprise No. 1: Italy’s Inconclusive Elections a Concern for US

In Italy last week, no candidate garnered enough votes to be elected prime minister. What’s more, anti-austerity comedian and blogger Beppe Grillo beat out incumbent Mario Monti, grabbing third place out of a pool of four major candidates and parties.

So why did Italy’s elections rock the US stock market as much as they did, when the results seem to have been largely anticipated in Europe? Perhaps they reminded US investors of Greece’s elections last May. Not only was there no clear victor in either election, but in both instances the results showed obvious disdain for austerity measures. Investors are worried that if Italy doesn’t honor the fiscal compact it agreed to in 2012, it could destabilize the European Monetary Union—which rekindles bad memories of Greece in 2012.

Surprise No. 2: The Sequester Gets a Shrug

It’s hard to believe stocks didn’t sell off last week on the lack of agreement on budget cuts to avoid the sequestration measures that kicked in on March 1. Yet it seems investors simply assumed a deal would be reached at the eleventh hour—or perhaps even the thirteenth hour, like when “fiscal-cliff” legislation was finally passed after the Dec. 31, 2012 deadline. In both instances, we saw much more political posturing than actual negotiation. This time around, investors anticipated the same kind of last-minute resolution.

Although no agreement was reached, investors may have found solace in the fact that the sequestration may be far less toxic than originally expected. The actual cuts to occur this year will not be $110 billion, as originally planned, but $85 billion, the amount agreed to in January’s fiscal-cliff legislation. Moreover, some of those $85 billion in cuts could occur over several years. All in all, the net impact of sequestration is expected to be about a 4% cut in defense spending, a 2% cut in Medicare and a 3% reduction in other eligible programs. While this is nothing to sneeze at, it doesn’t mean the US will go into a recession this year—especially given a very accommodative central bank.

No Surprise: Bernanke Keeps the Spigot Open

What isn’t surprising is the great comfort investors found in Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony speech last week—the mirror image of their negative reaction to the release of Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes on Feb. 20. Monetary policy has become such an important underpinning of the economy and the stock market that the words of FOMC members can and do move markets.

In his semiannual testimony, Bernanke acknowledged that the job recovery remained weak and that monetary policy was the source of vital economic support for the fragile economy. Most importantly, he rebutted renewed concerns about the cessation of quantitative easing, saying that he didn’t believe “the potential costs of increased risk-taking in some financial markets” outweighed “the benefits of promoting stronger economic growth.” The easy-money spigot remains open, and the stock market registered its approval.

US Investors More Tolerant of Troubles at Home

Last week’s stock-market roller coaster and the big spike in the VIX suggest that US investors remain very cautious about equities, especially when it comes to the euro zone. At the same time, they’re far more forgiving about domestic fiscal and political issues. Adding credence to that theory is the positive investor reaction to the surprisingly strong ISM Index reading for February—which served as a reminder that US fundamentals are much stronger than those in Europe. Given that investors calmed down so quickly last week, we can only hope that the recent jump in volatility is not the start of a familiar bumpy ride.

Subscribe Today The Upshot is available as a subscription for financial professionals only. New issues will be delivered via email every Monday. Your email address must be in our records for your subscription to take effect.




 
The material contains the current opinions of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. Forecasts and estimates have certain inherent limitations, and are not intended to be relied upon as advice or interpreted as a recommendation.

 
Past performance of the markets is no guarantee of future results. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is presented only to provide information on investment strategies and opportunities.


A Word About Risk
: Equities have tended to be volatile, involve risk to principal and, unlike bonds, do not offer a fixed rate of return. Foreign markets may be more volatile, less liquid, less transparent and subject to less oversight, and values may fluctuate with currency exchange rates; these risks may be greater in emerging markets.
 
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Since its introduction in 1993, VIX has been considered by many to be the world's premier barometer of investor sentiment and market volatility. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Composite Index (S&P 500) is an unmanaged index that is generally representative of the U.S. stock market. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of all final goods and services produced in a specific country. It is the broadest measure of economic activity and the principal indicator of economic performance.

Allianz Global Investors Distributors LLC, 1633 Broadway, New York NY, 10019-7585, us.allianzgi.com, 1-800-926-4456.

Search

> Advanced Search

Find a Product

Or Select

Contact Us

For all inquiries please contact us

Follow Us

       

Related Documents

TypeTitle
The Upshot-03.04.13 
Investor
The Upshot 
AGI-2013-03-04-6033 

Share

Facebook
LinkedIn
Twitter

You are currently leaving us.allianzgi.com and navigating to a third-party website. Allianz Global Investors Distributors LLC accepts no responsibility for content on third-party sites or for the services provided. When using the services provided by a third-party site, you are subject to that site’s terms of service and privacy rules, which you should review carefully.