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Every Monday, The Upshot offers timely market analysis from our US investment strategist, including a breakdown of economic and policy trends, and their implications for investors. Plus, a snapshot of upcoming economic events.

Countdown to the Election: The Candidates on Healthcare

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Making up about 17% of US GDP and affecting all, healthcare has long been a political lightning rod in US elections. Kristina Hooper, along with Peter Lefkin, scrutinize the 2016 candidates' healthcare positions and their potential impact on the economy.

Election Countdown: Taxation

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Amid a most astounding presidential campaign season, tax policy has gone virtually unnoticed. Kristina Hooper looks past the rhetoric to shed light on the candidates’ tax proposals and what a Clinton or Trump victory could mean for the US economy.

Election Countdown: Fiscal Spending

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For the second time in as many debates, the US presidential candidates failed to talk about fiscal spending. Much too important to go unmentioned, Kristina Hooper presents each candidate’s fiscal platform and the potential implications for the US economy.

Countdown to the Election: Infrastructure Spending

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Lost in the analysis of last week’s first presidential debate was the brief but important mention of infrastructure. It’s actually the one thing both candidates agree on, according to Kristina Hooper, who says investors would do well to take note.

Election Countdown: 3 Months That Will Shape the Future

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As the fourth quarter of 2016 dawns, an eventful year becomes more so. Americans decide on the next US president and the composition of Congress, while the Fed decides whether to hike rates. Kristina Hooper says there is year-end uncertainty all around.

Singling Out Inflation in the Fed's Dual Mandate

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If the Fed is seeking a reason to raise rates at its upcoming September meeting, inflation could be it. While inflation has ticked upward, however, Kristina Hooper says the modest move seems unlikely to warrant Fed action ahead of the US election.

5 Reasons Fed is Unlikely to Raise Rates in September

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Last week reminded us of the power that central banks wield over markets, for better or worse. While Kristina Hooper says central bank actions will be met with increasing market volatility, we still don't expect to see a rate hike in September.

Clear and Convincing Evidence Absent for Fall Rate Hike

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Recent data, including the August jobs report, suggests the US economy is not overheating, but it's not overcooling either. This doesn't mean everything is just right, however. Kristina Hooper says the Fed is seeking convincing data one way or the other.

The Fed: From Jekyll Island to Jackson Hole

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The attention on Fed Chair Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole reminds us of the great power the Fed wields over markets, as well as the Fed's vulnerability. But Kristina Hooper says the speech itself didn't tell us much about the path of interest rates.

Looking to Yellen for Clarity Amid Fed's Mixed Messages

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With a seemingly divided Fed, a strengthening yen and stabilizing euro, Kristina Hooper reminds investors to pay attention to Janet Yellen's speech this Friday and to follow currencies closely, as they have been leading the changes in other asset values.

Weak Productivity and Capex Dim Growth Prospects

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Last week's productivity reading is the latest in a downward trend and raises disappointing questions and troubling implications for the US economy's ability to grow. In particular, it underscores the need for business investment, argues Kristina Hooper.

The Consumer Healing Continues

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What looked like a down week for stocks turned into a positive one thanks in part to last Friday's surprisingly upbeat July jobs report. Kristina Hooper says the report was positive in a variety of ways, from total jobs created to wage growth.

A Week of Surprises, But not Shocks

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The recent stock market rally fizzled last week on a flurry of surprises that showed a more hawkish Fed, a hesitant BOJ and weak US GDP growth. Kristina Hooper says investors need to be vigilant and prepared for more surprises over the remainder of 2016.

Spotlight on Housing

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Alongside capital investment, housing is considered a critical cyclical indicator on the health of the US economy. Currently on an upward trend, Kristina Hooper takes a closer look at housing's outsize impact and the all-important Case-Shiller index.

Central Bank 'Put' Leads to Sweet Spot for Stocks

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Last week reminded us once again that monetary policy still has a significant impact on asset class prices. Kristina Hooper says investors need to be prepared for monetary policy exhaustion, which means embracing a more active approach to investing.


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The Upshot PDF - 10-24-2016 
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