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Every Monday, The Upshot offers timely market analysis from our US investment strategist, including a breakdown of economic and policy trends, and their implications for investors. Plus, a snapshot of upcoming economic events.

Singling Out Inflation in the Fed's Dual Mandate

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If the Fed is seeking a reason to raise rates at its upcoming September meeting, inflation could be it. While inflation has ticked upward, however, Kristina Hooper says the modest move seems unlikely to warrant Fed action ahead of the US election.

5 Reasons Fed is Unlikely to Raise Rates in September

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Last week reminded us of the power that central banks wield over markets, for better or worse. While Kristina Hooper says central bank actions will be met with increasing market volatility, we still don't expect to see a rate hike in September.

Clear and Convincing Evidence Absent for Fall Rate Hike

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Recent data, including the August jobs report, suggests the US economy is not overheating, but it's not overcooling either. This doesn't mean everything is just right, however. Kristina Hooper says the Fed is seeking convincing data one way or the other.

The Fed: From Jekyll Island to Jackson Hole

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The attention on Fed Chair Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole reminds us of the great power the Fed wields over markets, as well as the Fed's vulnerability. But Kristina Hooper says the speech itself didn't tell us much about the path of interest rates.

Looking to Yellen for Clarity Amid Fed's Mixed Messages

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With a seemingly divided Fed, a strengthening yen and stabilizing euro, Kristina Hooper reminds investors to pay attention to Janet Yellen's speech this Friday and to follow currencies closely, as they have been leading the changes in other asset values.

Weak Productivity and Capex Dim Growth Prospects

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Last week's productivity reading is the latest in a downward trend and raises disappointing questions and troubling implications for the US economy's ability to grow. In particular, it underscores the need for business investment, argues Kristina Hooper.

The Consumer Healing Continues

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What looked like a down week for stocks turned into a positive one thanks in part to last Friday's surprisingly upbeat July jobs report. Kristina Hooper says the report was positive in a variety of ways, from total jobs created to wage growth.

A Week of Surprises, But not Shocks

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The recent stock market rally fizzled last week on a flurry of surprises that showed a more hawkish Fed, a hesitant BOJ and weak US GDP growth. Kristina Hooper says investors need to be vigilant and prepared for more surprises over the remainder of 2016.

Spotlight on Housing

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Alongside capital investment, housing is considered a critical cyclical indicator on the health of the US economy. Currently on an upward trend, Kristina Hooper takes a closer look at housing's outsize impact and the all-important Case-Shiller index.

Central Bank 'Put' Leads to Sweet Spot for Stocks

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Last week reminded us once again that monetary policy still has a significant impact on asset class prices. Kristina Hooper says investors need to be prepared for monetary policy exhaustion, which means embracing a more active approach to investing.

Between a Rock and a Hard Place

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The surprisingly strong June jobs report suggests the anemic May reading was an aberration. This has calmed fears of a sustained US slowdown, but has also made the Fed's job more challenging as it navigates whipsaw shifts in the global economy.

Uncertainty Rises but so Do Stocks—for Now

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Much to investor surprise, the US stock market delivered exceptional gains in the week following the Brexit vote with the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ each up over 3%. Kristina Hooper urges caution as she delves into what the capital markets may be telling us.

Brexit: One of Many Risks Around Us

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With all eyes focused on the shocking outcome of the UK's historic vote, Kristina Hooper reminds investors that this is just one of the many hazards impacting their portfolios. The AllianzGI 2016 RiskMonitor Survey points to bigger risks than Brexit.

Waiting to Brexhale

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After much volatility last week, investors now hold their breath as they await the fate of this Thursday's Brexit vote. Kristina Hooper says it looks to be a potentially history-making week that could reverberate throughout the world's capital markets.

Fed Meets in an Increasingly Fragile World

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As the world processes the aftermath of yet another deadly terrorist attack, Kristina Hooper takes stock of how the presence of so many geopolitical crises could impact the markets.


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The Upshot PDF - 9-19-2016 
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