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Every Monday, The Upshot offers timely market analysis from our US investment strategist, including a breakdown of economic and policy trends, and their implications for investors. Plus, a snapshot of upcoming economic events.

The Fed: From Jekyll Island to Jackson Hole

The Upshot

08/29/2016

The attention on Fed Chair Yellen's speech at Jackson Hole reminds us of the great power the Fed wields over markets, as well as the Fed's vulnerability. But Kristina Hooper says the speech itself didn't tell us much about the path of interest rates.

Looking to Yellen for Clarity Amid Fed's Mixed Messages

The Upshot

08/22/2016

With a seemingly divided Fed, a strengthening yen and stabilizing euro, Kristina Hooper reminds investors to pay attention to Janet Yellen's speech this Friday and to follow currencies closely, as they have been leading the changes in other asset values.

Weak Productivity and Capex Dim Growth Prospects

The Upshot

08/15/2016

Last week's productivity reading is the latest in a downward trend and raises disappointing questions and troubling implications for the US economy's ability to grow. In particular, it underscores the need for business investment, argues Kristina Hooper.

The Consumer Healing Continues

The Upshot

08/08/2016

What looked like a down week for stocks turned into a positive one thanks in part to last Friday's surprisingly upbeat July jobs report. Kristina Hooper says the report was positive in a variety of ways, from total jobs created to wage growth.

A Week of Surprises, But not Shocks

The Upshot

08/01/2016

The recent stock market rally fizzled last week on a flurry of surprises that showed a more hawkish Fed, a hesitant BOJ and weak US GDP growth. Kristina Hooper says investors need to be vigilant and prepared for more surprises over the remainder of 2016.

Spotlight on Housing

The Upshot

07/25/2016

Alongside capital investment, housing is considered a critical cyclical indicator on the health of the US economy. Currently on an upward trend, Kristina Hooper takes a closer look at housing's outsize impact and the all-important Case-Shiller index.

Central Bank 'Put' Leads to Sweet Spot for Stocks

The Upshot

07/18/2016

Last week reminded us once again that monetary policy still has a significant impact on asset class prices. Kristina Hooper says investors need to be prepared for monetary policy exhaustion, which means embracing a more active approach to investing.

Between a Rock and a Hard Place

The Upshot

07/11/2016

The surprisingly strong June jobs report suggests the anemic May reading was an aberration. This has calmed fears of a sustained US slowdown, but has also made the Fed's job more challenging as it navigates whipsaw shifts in the global economy.

Uncertainty Rises but so Do Stocks—for Now

The Upshot

07/05/2016

Much to investor surprise, the US stock market delivered exceptional gains in the week following the Brexit vote with the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ each up over 3%. Kristina Hooper urges caution as she delves into what the capital markets may be telling us.

Brexit: One of Many Risks Around Us

The Upshot

06/27/2016

With all eyes focused on the shocking outcome of the UK's historic vote, Kristina Hooper reminds investors that this is just one of the many hazards impacting their portfolios. The AllianzGI 2016 RiskMonitor Survey points to bigger risks than Brexit.

Waiting to Brexhale

The Upshot

06/20/2016

After much volatility last week, investors now hold their breath as they await the fate of this Thursday's Brexit vote. Kristina Hooper says it looks to be a potentially history-making week that could reverberate throughout the world's capital markets.

Fed Meets in an Increasingly Fragile World

The Upshot

06/13/2016

As the world processes the aftermath of yet another deadly terrorist attack, Kristina Hooper takes stock of how the presence of so many geopolitical crises could impact the markets.

The Jobs Report Heard Round the World

The Upshot

06/06/2016

In the wake of the weak May jobs report, most are assuming a summer rate hike is off the table. However, there are some reasons for the Fed to act—if only a baby step. Either way, Kristina Hooper says we're in for a summer of uncertainty and volatility.

Fed Faces a High Degree of Difficulty This Summer

The Upshot

05/31/2016

As we move closer to the FOMC's much-anticipated June meeting, we seem to be moving further away from any certainty as to what the Fed may actually do. Kristina Hooper says mixed economic data thus far will make new data releases all the more critical.

Will the Fed Drive With Both Feet on the Pedals?

The Upshot

05/23/2016

The potential for a June rate hike is higher than many market participants believe, says Kristina Hooper. But summer tightening could still be part of an overall benign monetary policy, given the possibility of a "gas-brake-gas-brake" rate-hike cycle.

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