Four Financial Repression Headwinds Affecting Investors 

 

 

 

 
We’ve identified four factors that are working against investors in the current climate of financial repression. Some, like investors’ own fears, are within their control. Others, like low yields and inflation, require out-of-thebox thinking. But overcoming all four headwinds requires guidance from a trusted financial advisor.
1
The fear factor
Many investors moved into bonds and cash after the 2008 financial crisis and the ensuing years of market volatility. But it’s impossible to avoid investment risk completely; in fact, by sitting in cash or low-yielding Treasuries, investors are incurring the risk of not meeting their long-term goals (see chart below).
2
Low yields
Sovereign-debt yields in core countries have fallen to record lows as bondholders and savers are being quietly forced to pay off the debt burdens of governments. These low yields are insufficient for generating comfortable returns or protecting purchasing power.
3
Inflation and slow growth
Debt-laden governments are attempting to reduce their debt burdens by, in effect, reducing the value of their national currencies through inflation. This takes a toll on savers—particularly retirees, who depend on income from savings. In addition, economies weighed down by debt are experiencing slow growth, so investors around the world need to look harder to find the growth potential they need.
4
Continued volatility
Markets have grown much more volatile since the financial crisis. Macroeconomic events continue to overshadow fundamentals, creating a roller coaster “risk-on/risk-off” environment. This ongoing volatility may prompt investors to misallocate their portfolios and miss valuable opportunities.

Traditional Income Sources Fall Short Today
CDs, Treasuries and cash are now yielding significantly less than they were in 2006, as shown in this chart of annual income generated from a hypothetical $100,000 investment. Today, stocks and high-yield bonds are more likely to be able to deliver the income your clients need.
Hypothetical income based on yields as of:
 
12/31/06
 
12/31/12
  • 3-Month T-Bill
    • $5,007

  • 6 Month CD
    • $5,310

  • 2-Year
    Treasury Bond
    • $4,790

  • 10-Year
    Treasury Bond
    • $4,690

  • S&P 500
    • $1,853

  • High-Yield
    Bonds
    • $7,920

  • $10,000

    $8,000

    $6,000

    $4,000

    $2,000


Sources: Bloomberg and Factset. Data as of 12/31/12.
* S&P 500 yields based on past year.
A Word About Risk: Investing involves risk and you can lose money. Equities have tended to be volatile and, unlike bonds, do not offer a fixed rate of return. Dividend-paying stocks are not guaranteed to continue to pay dividends. High-yield or “junk” bonds have lower credit ratings and involve a greater risk to principal. Foreign markets may be more volatile, less liquid, less transparent and subject to less oversight, and values may fluctuate with currency exchange rates; these risks may be greater in emerging markets. Investments in commodities may be affected by overall market movements, changes in interest rates and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes and international economic and political developments. Bond prices will normally decline as interest rates rise. Investing in a limited number of sectors may increase risk and volatility. The impact may be greater with longer-duration bonds. The value of real estate and portfolios that invest in real estate may fluctuate due to: losses from casualty or condemnation, changes in local and general economic conditions, supply and demand, interest rates, property tax rates, regulatory limitations on rents, zoning laws and operating expenses. US government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. It is presented only to provide information on investment strategies and opportunities. The article contains the current opinions of the author, which are subject to change without notice. Statements concerning financial market trends are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities.

Allianz Global Investors Distributors LLC, 1633 Broadway, New York NY, 10019-7585, us.allianzgi.com, 1-800-926-4456.

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